Could a Republican Senator for Alabama really lose? It seems I’ll admit a preposterous idea but a closer look at polling data could tell that this could be the race everyone talks about the morning after the election saying “What the helck?” (Yes I may up my own word hell is too offensive, heck is too hokey).
Session’s last numbers in an election (2002) were 59% with 792,561 vs. 538,878 for his opponent. Now look at his 1996 numbers during his first race (1996) 786,436 vs. 681,651. So while now being an incumbent he only gained 6,000 votes. While the Democrats lost 140,000 between the two races. What the huge drop in Democratic turnout? 1996 was a presidential election year, 2002 was not. Not to mention the fact that 2002 was the golden year for Republican elections. Now we have a presidential election coinciding with the senate race once again.
That’s not enough information to support my claim yet, so I found out how the two Democrats Alabama elects to the house fared in congressional only elections vs. presidential elections. The difference? Rep. Cramer received 60,000 more votes in 2004 than 2002. He was unopposed in 2006. Rep. Davis received 30,000 in 2004 than 2002 for a combined 90,000. Add in another 50,000 of Democrats in Republican district and it’s clear they’ll be showing up in November.
But still, this race is only competitive because it happens this year, 2008. If Barack Obama is the nominee the seat remains one to watch. If it is Clinton it will go to Sessions without a doubt. What Obama will do in the general election and his big selling point to Democratic voters worried about electabiltiy is this: African Americans will vote like never before, all that can be, will be registered. And almost all of them will vote obviously for Obama. Almost every single legally eligible African American will vote in this election, the organization and enthusiasm will be mind blowing. (I do not consider him much more electable than Clinton but this is his only legitimate selling point). Besides winning in the Alabama primary, Obama and Clinton were both remarkable for bringing in so many to a primary with 542,000 Democrats voting. Do the numbers this was a primary that more Democrats voted in than voted for the Democratic candidate in 2002. This was also before we will fully see the Obama-mania hit the black community.
Also the candidate makes the difference with the Democrat now being Vivian Figures, an African American woman. Sessions previous challengers were both white. Sessions has had quite a back ground with race relations having been rejected by the Senate Judiciary Committee for his views on civil rights. He prosecuted civil rights workers (who were found not guilty), used Hurricane Katrina to push through unrelated legislation, said he was against civil liberties, voted against the Voting Rights Act, attacked the NAACP calling it “un-American”, and was the main opponent to comprehensive immigration reform. Here’s the line you’ll see in television spots quoting from the junior senator “I use to think the KKK was ok”. Oh and the cherry on top, he was recently tagged with accepting illegal funds to his campaign.
Expect race to be the hot topic of the campaign with Sessions on the losing end. But in order for him to go down like another bigot turned Senator (Frm. Sen. George Allen) Figures must make Whites uncomfortable with aligning with Sessions, to the point a Sessions bumper sticker causes stares from other whites. She can’t win the white vote or come even close but if she depresses it, if McCain turns off some southern racist whites into voting altogether, if Obama gets the nomination and causes the greatest African American voting by huge margins, if the DNC actually supports Figures as a viable candidate. If, If, If.
I remain unconvinced at this time nor do I endorse Figures. But the pieces are there, should they fall into place, they could make one very bizarre puzzle this November.
